WORDS | Ed Stocker
The race for talent has entered a new chapter.
Raleigh has emerged as one of North America’s most compelling people movement stories, driven by a generation seeking more than just economic opportunity. But will it sustain?
To investigate, ERA-co’s Alex Baum partnered with journalist and Monocle’s Europe Editor at Large, Ed Stoker, and our analytics team.
Subscribe to our Newsletter
Gen Z is predicted to become the largest adult population in the US by the 2040s, wielding sizable influence over our politics, economics, and society – including the built environment. As Gen Z college graduates enter the job market, where they choose to move matters. While the media obsesses about which metropolis is “the next Austin”, Gen Z has already decided. In 2023, 22,250 Gen Z professionals moved to North Carolina, making it the US’s third most popular state for the generation.
Crucially, the state was almost neck-and-neck with Arizona and South Carolina above it. The big draw is Raleigh and the Research Triangle area. But while the first wave of migration was driven by the pull of corporate jobs and Raleigh’s nearby elite universities, it stalled. The story not being told? The second wave is both different and durable. Raleigh is fast becoming the US’s next talent capital.
To understand what is happening in Raleigh, we need to look at a city that has seen it all before: Austin. In the first half of the 2010s, the Texan capital exploded, growing 15.5 percent in the first four years of the decade – cementing its place as one of the most desirable places to live in the US. And while the tech growth underpinning its boom is part of the picture (Dell was established in Austin in 1984), everything changed once Millennials started to arrive.
Austin had a magic formula: affordable housing (compared to coastal hubs), strong educational institutions and the lure of no state income tax. But Millennials were after more than just jobs – something Austin’s lifestyle gave them. The city’s neighborhoods – walkable, leafy, mixed-use, entertaining – were places where people could build lives.
The “Keep Austin Weird” moniker showed that, beyond the economic clout, Austin was also a freewheeling cultural hub. The music scene stretching back decades created international stars and a major creative ecosystem (the city was named “live music capital of the world” back in 1991). South by Southwest (SXSW), established in 1987, was an engine for that success, growing exponentially in the 2000s and expanding into tech and film. Austin also helped set the national pulse with its food scene, with a proliferation of food trucks from 2008. Austin had become a place where creativity in many forms was flourishing.
Austin’s golden age didn’t last. With fast population growth and economic success came a downside. The wealthy flocked, and by 2015, house prices were already experiencing an 11.6 percent year-on-year growth. By late 2024, the median home price in the Texan capital had reached $537,000, while the time stuck in the city’s now-notorious traffic jams added to people’s already spiraling costs. The backbone of Austin’s creative economy – its musicians – also began to get priced out. Between 2014 and 2022, there was a 12 percent drop in musicians living in Central Austin, while a musicians’ census from 2022 found almost 40 percent couldn’t afford housing.
The lesson for Raleigh to learn from Austin? Economic success alone isn’t enough. It needs to be coupled with long-term thinking about affordability, public space, and livable neighborhoods. Failure to do so risks losing the formula that makes a city special in the first place.
Raleigh’s growth is nothing new. In fact, while Austin was thriving, the North Carolinian city was having its own boom. Between 2000 and 2010, its population shot up 40.1 percent as the Research Triangle Park attracted corporations such as IBM, Cisco and GlaxoSmithKline, which all set up major facilities. Meanwhile, the universities of Duke, UNC and NC State ensured a pipeline of talent to the state – and fed the jobs market. But while all the pieces of the jigsaw seemed to be there, one was missing: culture.
The failure to develop a large-scale cultural scene meant the growth wasn’t sustainable. Instead, it was built on suburban office parks and transactional corporate work without thinking about developing the sort of thriving, vibrant, experiential built environment that makes young people want to come (and then stay). The result? They didn’t. Raleigh experienced an alarming slump, with the population only growing 15.78 percent in the subsequent decade.
Everything started to change in 2020. As remote working was catapulted into the mainstream, Gen Z finally had the flexible conditions it wanted. These people weren’t moving for Research Triangle jobs; they were coming for community, for the outdoors, and for an authentic urban experience. This time, Raleigh seems to be listening. In 2023, 110,800 new residents moved to North Carolina – the highest in a decade while in 2024, Raleigh’s population surpassed the 500,000 mark for the first time. This is Raleigh’s chance to be the next Austin – but with smarter growth.
Much has been made of trying to understand how Gen Z differs from previous generations. Research suggests Gen Z is more motivated by issues such as authenticity, experiences, and work-life balance, with a job needing to provide a sense of purpose. Raleigh is ticking plenty of these boxes:
Raleigh isn’t cheap, but it remains far more affordable than major cities such as New York, Boston, Los Angeles, or San Francisco. Indeed, the median house cost at the start of 2025 was $455,000, while San Francisco’s was $882,000. But Raleigh doesn’t feel small-town affordable: its large number of out-of-state transplants and diverse population help contribute to a sophisticated urban culture.
Glenwood South – just north of downtown and known as Raleigh’s entertainment district – is exactly the sort of neighborhood Gen Z is after. A walkable, mixed-use and high-density area, it features homes, offices, dining and entertainment, all packed into a compact space. It is also continuing to add residential units and grow fast.
Raleigh contains the assets for a high quality of life. There are over 200 parks and plenty of trails to explore nearby. The city’s North Carolina State Farmers Market is open every day of the year, its food scene has been recognized by James Beard more than any other destination in the state, and there’s a buzzing music scene, including Gen Z-aligned soft clubbing.
Raleigh pays good salaries. Its emerging tech scene – up 28.6 percent since 2020 – pays up to $129,542 for senior software engineer positions. But it’s also not a rat race like New York. In a recent national survey, Raleigh came fourth for work-life balance, but came first for green space and number of remote workers.
Raleigh doesn’t always top nationwide metrics – meaning it’s not best-in-class for jobs or affordable housing. But the ratio of cost to experiential quality means it’s the perfect hub for Gen Z professionals who can work from anywhere.
Raleigh isn’t as vibrant as Austin yet. But that’s a good thing, because it has a chance to learn from the mistakes that the Texan capital made. Raleigh’s first wave may have stalled, but it also provided a solid pillar for future growth. The Research Triangle Park isn’t Gen Z’s main motivator in moving to Raleigh but it provides the economic growth – and the stability – that spur Raleigh’s transformation. There are nearly 5,000 companies in the Triangle region alone.
With Raleigh’s second wave of migration, City Hall has realized that development shouldn’t just be farmed out to car-centric suburbs. Instead, it is prioritizing downtown, rethinking plazas, sidewalks, ramps, and public art that make neighborhoods feel more connected and welcoming. The city has also learned from Durham’s highly successful American Tobacco campus – a benchmark for how adaptive reuse can restore former factory stock. Raleigh has all it takes to become Austin 2.0 – but with a more intelligent, sustainable growth model.
Raleigh’s position as the US’s next Gen Z-friendly talent capital isn’t a shoo-in. Like all popular cities, Raleigh faces a potential affordability crisis. Development pressures could also derail the model, while Raleigh’s transport infrastructure needs to keep pace with the population spike. Remote-working Gen Z can be fickle too; if the conditions change, they’ll simply move on to another city.
Raleigh’s leadership now has a choice to make. Will it continue to maintain quality development alongside economic growth? Leveraging education, mixed-use urban density and higher education is one thing. Addressing equity, transport shortcomings and housing is another. Austin showed what’s possible when young people transform a city. Raleigh has a chance to show how it can be done better.
ERA-co’s advice? Keep pushing investment in experience so that it becomes a necessity rather than a tick-box. Raleigh also needs to be nimble at spotting development crossing a red line from genuine urban improvement into a generic growth model where returns override affordability and cultural life. The next successful chapter is there to be written.
Ed Stocker is Monocle’s Europe Editor at Large. Previously he was Monocle’s Americas Editor at Large, based in NYC.
Talk to Alex about Transformative Placemaking